Michael Noire
(?)Community Member
Offline
- Posted: Sun, 03 Feb 2013 17:52:00 +0000
The Future.
Here it is folks, a kind of culmination to a singularity only the likes of futurists on psychedelic shrooms and Star Trek's fictional Geordi LaForge have ever dreamed of. In the not so distant future, you are going to see prototypes of prototypes. Inventions based on inventions that have yet to be invented. What madness is this, you say?
Recently Wired Magazine ran an article on the idea that we were moving away from a spatial oriented sense of internet browsing and data storage, and moving into a temporal cloud based exploration of the past and present, largely due to the journal-like qualities of Facebook, online forums, and web archiving. What was barely touched upon and seriously needs to be taken into consideration is the fact that software companies are now being paid billions of dollars to generate algorithms for what's known as predictive analytics. This is a process where by virtue of the patterns in statistics, and through some fancy probability mechanics and chaos theory, you are able to estimate things like stock trends and future markets. Plugging in a bunch of factors like weather maps, market data, economic records, bank transactions, tracking records, and so forth, there's a basic belief that investors can get an edge by peering into the looking glass to forecast their future.
What most of these idiots don't realize is the Heisenberg uncertainty principle applies to their investments as well, and the cat is already out of the bag. By this I mean you have thousands of competitors, and in the same way bot bidding ruins the experience for Ebay buyers and other online last second marketing systems, predictive software applications are going to be largely fruitless because everyone is going to act on what they believe to be the inside loop, creating things like the Tech bubble crisis through overconfident investments.
But out of that mess, something really interesting is about to happen, something practically no one is seeing unless you are reading this right now. In the very near future, the technological application of this predictive software will come to the foreground. You are going to see a number of divergent fields converge, and it will be astounding. Here's how it's going to work:
As some of you are already aware, there's a little new gizmo on the market coming soon to a home near you. It's called a 3D printer. It's like a replicator from Star Trek, except it's still very primitive, like how old school printers used to have difficulty printing shapes or in color. Now from that analogy you should be able to infer the long run outcome of progress and impact for 3D printing as the manufacturing sector is going to end up taking a colossal hit, probably in the neighborhood of 40%. This isn't the real issue. I'm not even going to focus on how this hybrids with the next important step, which is to say, Bit Torrent CAD files that contain the blue prints for copyright and patent objects. That in and of itself is almost irrelevant because of all the freeware. Kind of like how a long time ago, when the electric guitar came out, every other kid got one and eventually every neighborhood had at least one garage band that sort of didn't suck, with companies like Etsy today, and small home business trends that started during the 1990s with the internet, you will see a hybrid of the 3D printing aspect and the small home internet business aspect, and the freeware patents will rise to millions.
Notice something though, you now are going to look at an internet saturated with news articles and Hobbyist Ezines with downloadable CAD files and introductions to these products plus speculation as to how they can be used. These web pages and Nook/Kindle/IPAD files will also have metatags that will allow webcrawlers like TLDR to consolidate the important bits of information, but this is where it's going to get whacky.
The rise of web crawling/consolidation engines is going to merge with the temporal search engine process. It will be searching through millions of articles on new products, and new patents, and the freeware equivalent of these patents, complete with rapid one click access to download these blue prints. Now, hold on to your horses people, because this is where it starts to get weird.
Predictive Analytics programs will attempt to anticipate not just future trends in markets anymore, but future trends in product design. Websites like Yanko Design and Singularity Hub will be scoured for new trends in products, and these older websites will serve as the model for future Ezines/Web Magazines which will contain various bits of materials, and the futurists and software will work together to try to establish the logical trend of how consumers will react to a new product, and anticipate what complimentary product will match that market, and then search for a complimentary product and then arrange for stock investing or 3D printing of that anticipatory product, sort of like manufacturing the cardboard cup holders for Star Bucks before Star Bucks brews it's first cup of coffee.
This trend in marketing will eventually sink into the purely technological, and someone somewhere is going to realize these CAD program products can be placed into a simulator. Where the products are consumer marketed, rather than performance based (i.e., a particular shape for a coffee mug that people find popular or aesthetically pleasing, as opposed to a new competition bike frame that is 30% stronger than any currently existing frame) the consumer product will enter a SIM of virtual customers, like a vast virtual reality of "people" modeled on aggregate data from things like Twitter, Facebook, and Shopping/Television Watching/Search Engine Patterns that are already being constructed. These virtual realities will not even have to be experienced by a living person - the data can be processed almost immediately, just like the show "Deadliest Warrior". Particularly effective hypothetical products may then be "beta tested" to some communities or even in Virtual Online communities like Second Life, depending on the product type and the extent to which the Virtual Reality corresponds to Physical Reality.
Meanwhile, Performance centered products will be placed through rigorous virtual reality demolitions tests, flight simulators, virtual wind tunnels, virtual thermal and chemical tests, and only then will some of these products be printed off on a 3D printer or sent to mass production, or uploaded to a server as the refined "Uberproduct v9.0", Now we are getting into the reality of what happens next, because what I've just described has already begun to happen in the early 2000s through the present.
Once the apparatus to test a product is able to generate statistical probabilities of success or failure, these simulated products which will never be seen in tangible form, will be aggregated and amalgamated in response to the predictions of each other. Then engineering products will simulate new construction processes, and new technologies will exist in a purely hypothetical form, and we will at first build on these complexities, but then we will refine the aesthetics and search for simplicity. So for example, at first we will use the cloud connected to millions of homes and thousands of universities with rooms full of computers to accomplish the processing power needed to simulate these virtual microscopes, virtual mills, virtual lathes, and eventually virtual computers. We will then find a way to compress down the important parts of the files in the same way a JPEG or WinZip compresses files today. The point is, manufacturing processes we do not currently have will be synthesized to produce alternative products, and to synthesize the machines that would make those products and techniques possible, sort of like comparing an episode of those old wood working tool shows and hand cranked drills with a modern drill press today. A Hand cranked drill or foot pedal lathe can be used to produce important components for the pre CNC mills and lathes of the 20th century, and those can be used in conjunction with computers, the components for CNC 5 axis mills of the late 20th century. 3D printers are already able to print the parts used to make more 3D printers.
What I'm suggesting is these new products will exist in virtual reality, be searched out by programs trying to find future trends in marketing, stocks, or technology, and then will based upon the models, and the reports of upcoming products, will be able to not only simulate these products, but build new products using machinery that does not yet exist, and will then build products based on the technologies of as of yet invented production techniques, and eventually, here's the final twist of it all, they will discover the 'dumbed down" simplified method of producing the manufacturing tool more efficiently and cheaply, and that tool will be, in it's component parts (ala Descartes) printed/milled off and then assembled, plugged into/wired into the computers that are supposed to be from 40-100 years earlier, and then start physically producing products that you would think belong in the 22nd century.
this process is going to then fold, so that the Rule of Moore's Law of computer chip processing power in virtual space will gain a 3D tangible equivalent. I suppose someone could call it Noire's law of Innovation. At that point, you will see an explosion in Technology unlike anything anyone has ever seen...unless you count in the aforementioned Moore's law. The Consequences of this rapid explosion in physical technology will be Technoshock in the vast majority of the human population. It will seem like magic to some people because you will be able to use the anticipation of a product to build a better one. I theorize that with legislation, limits of materials, costs, and so forth, it will be bumpy, and eventually it will slow down, but I want there to be no confusion as to what will happen. The jumps will be temporal in nature, rather than in processing power. I honestly have no idea what this will do to processing power, but I think the temporal jump will cause us to prematurely hit the boundary of Moore's law and then computers will start getting bigger again, in an almost comically comic book fashion, but most people won't have them in their homes, rather they will access much larger cloud like networks through portable devices that will be almost pure RAM or its equivalent. My point isn't to focus on the digital however, but to illustrate that in the very near future, our current social habits with technology are going to lead to the Prototypes of a Prototype, and the world is going to be shocked and awed.
Here it is folks, a kind of culmination to a singularity only the likes of futurists on psychedelic shrooms and Star Trek's fictional Geordi LaForge have ever dreamed of. In the not so distant future, you are going to see prototypes of prototypes. Inventions based on inventions that have yet to be invented. What madness is this, you say?
Recently Wired Magazine ran an article on the idea that we were moving away from a spatial oriented sense of internet browsing and data storage, and moving into a temporal cloud based exploration of the past and present, largely due to the journal-like qualities of Facebook, online forums, and web archiving. What was barely touched upon and seriously needs to be taken into consideration is the fact that software companies are now being paid billions of dollars to generate algorithms for what's known as predictive analytics. This is a process where by virtue of the patterns in statistics, and through some fancy probability mechanics and chaos theory, you are able to estimate things like stock trends and future markets. Plugging in a bunch of factors like weather maps, market data, economic records, bank transactions, tracking records, and so forth, there's a basic belief that investors can get an edge by peering into the looking glass to forecast their future.
What most of these idiots don't realize is the Heisenberg uncertainty principle applies to their investments as well, and the cat is already out of the bag. By this I mean you have thousands of competitors, and in the same way bot bidding ruins the experience for Ebay buyers and other online last second marketing systems, predictive software applications are going to be largely fruitless because everyone is going to act on what they believe to be the inside loop, creating things like the Tech bubble crisis through overconfident investments.
But out of that mess, something really interesting is about to happen, something practically no one is seeing unless you are reading this right now. In the very near future, the technological application of this predictive software will come to the foreground. You are going to see a number of divergent fields converge, and it will be astounding. Here's how it's going to work:
As some of you are already aware, there's a little new gizmo on the market coming soon to a home near you. It's called a 3D printer. It's like a replicator from Star Trek, except it's still very primitive, like how old school printers used to have difficulty printing shapes or in color. Now from that analogy you should be able to infer the long run outcome of progress and impact for 3D printing as the manufacturing sector is going to end up taking a colossal hit, probably in the neighborhood of 40%. This isn't the real issue. I'm not even going to focus on how this hybrids with the next important step, which is to say, Bit Torrent CAD files that contain the blue prints for copyright and patent objects. That in and of itself is almost irrelevant because of all the freeware. Kind of like how a long time ago, when the electric guitar came out, every other kid got one and eventually every neighborhood had at least one garage band that sort of didn't suck, with companies like Etsy today, and small home business trends that started during the 1990s with the internet, you will see a hybrid of the 3D printing aspect and the small home internet business aspect, and the freeware patents will rise to millions.
Notice something though, you now are going to look at an internet saturated with news articles and Hobbyist Ezines with downloadable CAD files and introductions to these products plus speculation as to how they can be used. These web pages and Nook/Kindle/IPAD files will also have metatags that will allow webcrawlers like TLDR to consolidate the important bits of information, but this is where it's going to get whacky.
The rise of web crawling/consolidation engines is going to merge with the temporal search engine process. It will be searching through millions of articles on new products, and new patents, and the freeware equivalent of these patents, complete with rapid one click access to download these blue prints. Now, hold on to your horses people, because this is where it starts to get weird.
Predictive Analytics programs will attempt to anticipate not just future trends in markets anymore, but future trends in product design. Websites like Yanko Design and Singularity Hub will be scoured for new trends in products, and these older websites will serve as the model for future Ezines/Web Magazines which will contain various bits of materials, and the futurists and software will work together to try to establish the logical trend of how consumers will react to a new product, and anticipate what complimentary product will match that market, and then search for a complimentary product and then arrange for stock investing or 3D printing of that anticipatory product, sort of like manufacturing the cardboard cup holders for Star Bucks before Star Bucks brews it's first cup of coffee.
This trend in marketing will eventually sink into the purely technological, and someone somewhere is going to realize these CAD program products can be placed into a simulator. Where the products are consumer marketed, rather than performance based (i.e., a particular shape for a coffee mug that people find popular or aesthetically pleasing, as opposed to a new competition bike frame that is 30% stronger than any currently existing frame) the consumer product will enter a SIM of virtual customers, like a vast virtual reality of "people" modeled on aggregate data from things like Twitter, Facebook, and Shopping/Television Watching/Search Engine Patterns that are already being constructed. These virtual realities will not even have to be experienced by a living person - the data can be processed almost immediately, just like the show "Deadliest Warrior". Particularly effective hypothetical products may then be "beta tested" to some communities or even in Virtual Online communities like Second Life, depending on the product type and the extent to which the Virtual Reality corresponds to Physical Reality.
Meanwhile, Performance centered products will be placed through rigorous virtual reality demolitions tests, flight simulators, virtual wind tunnels, virtual thermal and chemical tests, and only then will some of these products be printed off on a 3D printer or sent to mass production, or uploaded to a server as the refined "Uberproduct v9.0", Now we are getting into the reality of what happens next, because what I've just described has already begun to happen in the early 2000s through the present.
Once the apparatus to test a product is able to generate statistical probabilities of success or failure, these simulated products which will never be seen in tangible form, will be aggregated and amalgamated in response to the predictions of each other. Then engineering products will simulate new construction processes, and new technologies will exist in a purely hypothetical form, and we will at first build on these complexities, but then we will refine the aesthetics and search for simplicity. So for example, at first we will use the cloud connected to millions of homes and thousands of universities with rooms full of computers to accomplish the processing power needed to simulate these virtual microscopes, virtual mills, virtual lathes, and eventually virtual computers. We will then find a way to compress down the important parts of the files in the same way a JPEG or WinZip compresses files today. The point is, manufacturing processes we do not currently have will be synthesized to produce alternative products, and to synthesize the machines that would make those products and techniques possible, sort of like comparing an episode of those old wood working tool shows and hand cranked drills with a modern drill press today. A Hand cranked drill or foot pedal lathe can be used to produce important components for the pre CNC mills and lathes of the 20th century, and those can be used in conjunction with computers, the components for CNC 5 axis mills of the late 20th century. 3D printers are already able to print the parts used to make more 3D printers.
What I'm suggesting is these new products will exist in virtual reality, be searched out by programs trying to find future trends in marketing, stocks, or technology, and then will based upon the models, and the reports of upcoming products, will be able to not only simulate these products, but build new products using machinery that does not yet exist, and will then build products based on the technologies of as of yet invented production techniques, and eventually, here's the final twist of it all, they will discover the 'dumbed down" simplified method of producing the manufacturing tool more efficiently and cheaply, and that tool will be, in it's component parts (ala Descartes) printed/milled off and then assembled, plugged into/wired into the computers that are supposed to be from 40-100 years earlier, and then start physically producing products that you would think belong in the 22nd century.
this process is going to then fold, so that the Rule of Moore's Law of computer chip processing power in virtual space will gain a 3D tangible equivalent. I suppose someone could call it Noire's law of Innovation. At that point, you will see an explosion in Technology unlike anything anyone has ever seen...unless you count in the aforementioned Moore's law. The Consequences of this rapid explosion in physical technology will be Technoshock in the vast majority of the human population. It will seem like magic to some people because you will be able to use the anticipation of a product to build a better one. I theorize that with legislation, limits of materials, costs, and so forth, it will be bumpy, and eventually it will slow down, but I want there to be no confusion as to what will happen. The jumps will be temporal in nature, rather than in processing power. I honestly have no idea what this will do to processing power, but I think the temporal jump will cause us to prematurely hit the boundary of Moore's law and then computers will start getting bigger again, in an almost comically comic book fashion, but most people won't have them in their homes, rather they will access much larger cloud like networks through portable devices that will be almost pure RAM or its equivalent. My point isn't to focus on the digital however, but to illustrate that in the very near future, our current social habits with technology are going to lead to the Prototypes of a Prototype, and the world is going to be shocked and awed.
